Such is Israeli Politics

Such is Israeli politics...

Israel's Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu has backtracked on his call for early elections – they have now in fact been cancelled.

This morning, after the Coalition Chairman at the Knesset had already approved the dissolution law with it's first reading, it was announced that Mr. Netanyahu has come to an arrangement with a unity Government by inviting the Kadima party.

This is the political party started by Aerial Sharon and with whom Ehud Olmert was Prime Minister. This is the entity that lead the opposition under Tzipi Livni who is now out of her party leadership and politics altogether.

The dramatic and unprecedented move came after a night of drama and effectively pushes the next Israeli elections to November 2013.

The Kadima Chairman, Shual Mofaz will be the only Kadima minister in the government. Israel's controversial Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman was apparently in on the move and has stayed silent throughout the media flury all day.

Mr. Mofaz, who was Chief of Staff - Israel's top military commander before entering politics, will be appointed Vice Premier and will be member of all security forums.

Certainly a unity government will find it easier to operate against Iran if necessary.

And thus with this change of direction Mr. Netanyahu has silenced the political opponents, thrown their parties into the meat grinder, and has proven that he may well be Israel's most divisive, and yet talented, politician.

Brian Bush Middle East Correspondent LeSEA Broadcasting

Israeli-Palestinian Peace Track

Hi Everyone,

For months now there has not been much (if any) action on the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Track.

However, today the media here is citing sources saying that the Palestinians want a secret meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu.

It makes sense that the negotiators would wait till after Land Day for the Palestinians. The day itself was last Friday, and both in Israel and most of the territories it passed quietly.

There were demonstrations and clashes here and there, and one Palestinian who was killed by Israeli fire.

Palestinian organizers had promised masses of people... they did not materialize.

This may be because of all the upheaval in the Arab world, which distracts from the drawn out conflict.

But this dispute can be solved through dialogue and diplomacy if the sides want to do it.

With all the talk about the uncertain futures of Iraq, Egypt, and Syria perhaps both sides would do well to approach things in a matter-of-fact way to forge an agreement and provide the future of stability for their children.

Brian Bush Middle East Correspondent LeSEA Broadcasting

Likud Leadership Election

Hello All!

I mentioned on yesterday's live broadcast from Jerusalem that we are entering the election year here in Israel and today is the Likud leadership election.

The Likud Party was formed by an alliance of several right wing parties back in the early 70's. The word means 'Consolidation', and Menachem Begin was the party's first leader.

There are several political parties here in Israel, and Likud is one of the largest and most influential. It is the political party of Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, and part of his job is to lead his political party.

About 125,000 party members are expected to go to some 150 polling stations across the country. At the time of posting this, towards the end of the afternoon here, only 14% of the party people have cast their vote.

Mr. Netanyahu is expected to win. There is no real primary rival other than the extreme Right Wing candidate Moshe Feiglin who's power base is the settler movement.

Last election he garnered almost 24% of the vote. He is poised to make stronger gains, all be they inflated due to eligible voters not turning out.

The settler movement has been gravitating towards Likud for some time. It is part of Mr. Netanyahu's power base. His tough and nationalistic stances have traditionally been well received in settler circles.

But of late Mr. Netanyahu has expressed concerns over the growing influence of the Settlers in his Likud Party.

Mr. Feiglin has been gaining notarization, as he is a settler himself. And as trends in the Nation reflect a shifting to the political right, interest in his extreme views has gained media buzz and a wider political base.

However, one commentator here wrote today that neither candidate offers a bright future, and the fact is that Mr. Feiglin is younger, he may be in a position in time to come to seriously challenge for the Likud Leadership.

Earlier in the day his staff made the claim that there has been voting irregularities. Mr. Feiglin has announced a surprise speech for later this evening – a rallying cry I am sure for his supporters to get out and vote to greater increase his percentage in this primary election.

I'll have the details tomorrow on the Harvest Show – so be sure to join us!

Brian Bush Middle East Correspondent LeSEA Broadcasting

Breaking Down the Meeting

Hi Everyone!

Lets break down the meeting between the Israelis and the Palestinians held this past Tuesday.

It was the first time the two parties had publically met in a year and a half.

Talks stalled when Israel refused to extend a 10 month limited freeze on new settlement construction in the West Band and East Jerusalem.

The Jordanian-hosted meeting between Israeli special representative Yitzhak Molcho (a lawyer friend of Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu) and Palestinian representative Dr. Saeb Erekat, was not meant to produce any type of breakthrough towards renewing diplomatic negotiations between the parties.

At this point, the only thing that has come out of the meeting is the agreement to more talks.

This in and of itself is an accomplishment...

We do know that the Palestinians continued, at least publically, in their position of refusing discussions without pre-conditions.

And with the absence of Israel's pledge to freeze all construction over the Green Line, including Jerusalem, and of course the 'biggie', that Israel agree to the 1967 borders, we seem stuck.

There will be no real progress unless the parties are held accountable and demonstrate flexibility in positions for the sake of goodwill and compromise.

But there is one more important thing that came from this meeting.

Jordan's King Abdullah is not sitting on the sidelines watching things rot in stalemate. He is getting involved and is credited with this initiative to getting the parties to meet.

This is critical – particularly with the absence of Hosni Mubarak – Egypt's fallen ruler, who facilitated communication between the Israelis and Palestinians for decades.

Without communication there will be limited optimism for peace.

Brian Bush Middle East Correspondent LeSEA Broadcasting

Another Fire for Netanyahu

Hello Everyone,

Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu is once again caught up in public outcry and controversy. This time it's over introductory remarks for the Prime Minister at a memorial ceremony for the victims of last year's wildfire disaster in the Carmel region. Up until a few days ago, Mr. Netanyahu was not even going to the event, claiming no time in his schedule. Then he apparently changed his mind and announced he would be present at the event organized by the Ministry of Defense.

He may now wish he'd stuck to his original plan...

He has come under fire because his aids edited his introduction that was read out by a popular radio host prior to giving his speech.

The changes in text heaped words of praise upon the Prime Minister, who many in the public hold accountable in part for the deaths and the destruction of large sloths of forest in the hills of the Carmel.

The State Comptroller also found fault with Mr. Netanyahu in his handling of the affair.

But when he was introduced yesterday, one particular sentence did it all. It was;

"He (Netanyahu) who was first to recognize the magnitude of the event and who continuously cares for the families."

It took about one second after the Carmel ceremony ended, for the media to forgot the families and the tragedy and to begin to jump on Netanyahu.

One major daily compared the megalomaniacal words describing Netanyahu to the kind of language used to describe North Korea's late Kim Jong Il.

The families of the victims say that even if there were matters in which Netanyahu acted correctly, the description of him was tactless, insensitive, and immodest to say at a memorial for the fallen – and the media here is fully behind them.

What must be disappointing to Mr. Netanyahu was the inability of his people to see that such words are viewed as inappropriate for such an occasion, for those who were present and for the country. Brian Bush Middle East Correspondent LeSEA Broadcasting

Setback for the Palestinians

Greetings All,

The Palestinians have received what appears to be a setback in their quest for Statehood at the United Nations.

Currentltly, the Palestinians have what is called 'Permanent Observer' status.

Officials of the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO), headed by Palestinian President Mohmoud Abbas submitted their application for upgrade a few weeks ago and ever since have been fighting an uphill battle to convince, in particular, the members of the UN Security Council who have the authority to authorize statehood.

The setback comes as unconfirmed reports circulate that Britain, France and Colombia will abstain in the vote on Palestinian membership to be discussed next week.

The Palestinians have been trying to win support of European countries to obtain a moral victory against America who has said they will use their veto in the vote.

It is also said that Germany will oppose the Palestinian bid as well.

All four countries support Palestinian statehood in principle, but have taken the Israeli position that this action is unilateral by the Palestinians and therefore unhelpful to the peace talks that are supposed to be revived to settle the longstanding conflict between the parties.

Right now that application is before a committee studying the merits. Next week we may well see a formal discussion at the Security Council.

As always we will keep you posted on developments - be sure to tune into the Harvest Show to stay informed and inspired!

Brian Bush Middle East Correspondent LeSEA Broadcasting

Palestinians and UNESCO

Hi Everyone,

You probably picked up from Chuck Freeby's news this morning on the Harvest Show that the Palestinian Authority submitted an application to UNESCO (the United Nations Education, Scientific and Cultural Organization) for full membership.

That application was voted on by the member bodies and passed by a solid majority.

Israel and the United States both opposed Palestinian membership at this time and voted against it.

The US administration is now withholding it's membership dues which compose of 1/5th of the whole organizational budget.

With the UNESCO membership granted, the Palestinians now have their eyes set on joining as a full member another 16 UN agencies, including the World Health Organization, Intellectual Property Organization and Atomic Agency - among other organizations.

After the Palestinians were accepted – Israel considers its steps.

Despite warnings, Result: Washington acted according to US law and halted aid. Israel: Palestinians.

Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu is to convene his 'forum of eight' within his cabinet to discuss Israel's reaction to acceptance of the Palestinian Authority.

Israel feels the PA is violating commitments made to it.

The Palestinians have responded saying Israel should have been the first to congratulate them on their acceptance as the two share a land with a common history and culture.

But Israel's Foreign Ministry released a statement saying; "The Palestinian move at UNESCO, as with similar such steps with other UN bodies, is tantamount to a rejection of the international community's efforts to advance the peace process".

It has gone on to threaten to cut its ties with UNESCO and with the Palestinian Authority as well.

So what's the big fuss?

UNESCO is best known for its World Heritage Sites – and Membership is seen by Palestinian leaders as part of a broader push to get international recognition and put pressure on Israel.

At the conference held in Paris the Palestinian Foreign Minister Riyad al-Malki told the meeting "This vote will erase a tiny part of the injustice done to the Palestinian people," after the result was announced.

One of the first anticipated moves for the Palestinians is to apply for world heritage status for sites such as the Church of the Nativity in Bethlehem.

We'll keep you abreast of the developments as they happen – both here and on the Harvest Show – so stay tuned in!

Brian Bush Middle East Correspondent LeSEA Broadcasting

Chess and a Playbook

Hi Everybody,

Yesterday I reported on the Harvest Show that the Israeli Defense Forces have recommended strengthening Palestinian President Mohmoud Abbas by a series of gestures in light of the perceived strengthening of Hamas after the prisoner swap to gain back Israeli soldier Gilad Schalit.

Now interestingly enough, Mr. Netanyahu's advisers are saying, in media reports, that Mr. Abbas must be punished.

But why do this when one would think that the Israelis want to strengthen the moderates among the Palestinians – especially with the buoyed standing of Hamas?

Well, it's a huge huge huge game of political chess. The main play this week has been that the Palestinians have accepted the Quartet for Peace's plan for the resumption of peace talks – albeit with some conditions.

Now one of the benefits of being here for years is that you see and learn how things work between the Israelis and Palestinians – as opposed to just reporting the news as it happens.

One of the other things I spoke of yesterday was the freeze on construction of settlements in the West Bank that are held by the government of Israel.

The American administration is proposing the resumption of negotiations this "quiet" maneuver until end of peace negotiations. According to this proposal, Israel would not build outside boundaries of current settlements but would not say so officially.

It's part of the build up to tomorrows meeting of the Quartet members here in Jerusalem with both Israeli and PA representatives in order to move those negotiations forward.

The Palestinian Authority has upped the ante by attempting to capitalize on the IDF's declaration to release Fatah prisoners by saying today that they want the release of Marwan Bargouti (seen as a potential replacement for Abbas) and another high profile figure upon the resumption of negotiations.

The Palestinians are partly basing this on a promise made to them by former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, and like the freeze of construction in settlements, they feel this is living up to a commitment.

The Israeli response says it all. Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman said Mr. Abbas's resignation would be a blessing for Israel.

So what is the political play here on the chess board of diplomacy?

Netanyahu believes he can get a better deal for Israel than what the peace negotiations will give him. Thus, some in the Israeli media are saying he wants to punish Abbas for his quest for peace and for going to the UN in the Palestinian's desire for Statehood to achieve it.

In order to do this Netanyahu broke his own rule by negotiating with Hamas. Hamas is defined as a terror organization, and the Quartet's rules parallel Israel's official stance saying that negotiations cannot be held with Hamas - and those rules are still in force.

But Mr. Netanyahu did because it serves his short-term political interest.

Remember Ariel Sharon? He also wanted to punish Mr. Abbas after the removal of Yasser Arafat for Abbas's insistence on accepting the Road Map for peace, which in doing so he effectively cornered Israel into keeping it's prior commitments.

Sharon punished him with the risk that turned into reality when Hamas took over Gaza once Israel withdrew from the strip – and they did.

Maybe Mr. Netanyahu is taking from the playbook of Mr. Sharon and seeking to punish Abbas for accepting the Quartet's plan for peace, which some are saying will bring Hamas into Ramallah.

For many, that's unthinkable – but noone thought Hamas would win democratic elections, and no one thought they would be able to kick out Fatah from Gaza... but they did both.

Brian Bush Middle East Correspondent LeSEA Broadcasting

Libya Must Build Itself

Hello Friends,

We have all seen the developments in Libya that has concluded the 9 month uprising.

Muammar Gadhafi was the longest ruling figure in the Arab world and the African continent.

His flamboyance, shrewd and calculating mind, and the force in which he ruled are now removed.

It is a fact that he was a survivor on the world stage. Now that he is gone, the question is, will Libya survive?

Libya is a tribal land... a land sometimes hard for western minds to understand because it's core sociology is based upon things (Koranic teaching, Islamic tradition, and sociological traits) most in the West are not exposed to.

In other words, for the peoples of Libya, they now have no 'Libyan' leadership – the first time for the majority of the populace who have known no leader other than Gadhafi - and now one must emerge.

What many there see is a Western leadership put in place that, as far as they are concerned, was there to help force Muammar Gadhafi out.

Human nature being what it is – people will cling to and promote that which they know and understand, and are comfortable with.

Some have predicted that the people of Tripoli will not include the welfare of the desert tribesman, and the tribesman can not appreciate the national needs of the nation.

This new leader will need to posses the earned respect of a very fractured group (and interests) of the land's peoples.

The wealth of Libya is immense and diverse. Yes the oil, but for example the nature and archeology are foundations for tourism.

Libya must build itself - albeit with Western assistance, but it must not be seen. The people are a proud collection of old ways and forward thinkers, and this generation of change must stop and think about what they will build for their future generation – a Libyan generation absent of conspicuous outside influence.

If the National Transitional council can forge this, things will be OK... for the citizens, for the investors and economic growth, and for those who chose the maintenance of traditional ways of life there.

Lets hope and pray that with all the adrenalin from the success of defeating Colonel Gadhafi, people in power will not try to use the terrible violence that has plague this north African nation for over four decades.

Brian Bush Middle East Correspondent LeSEA Broadcasting

What Made for the Deal?

Hello Everyone,

So lets take a concise look at how this deal went down to release the Israeli soldier Gilad Schalit for 1027 Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.

Many factors contributed to the release. The main breakthrough came in July. All this has been going on for five years, but this main breakthrough basically started with yet another letter between Hamas and Israel.

The negotiations picked up where they left off back in 2009, when the German government created a mediation plan and proposal.

Hamas, it is said, was apparently the one who showed flexibility first. Bottom line, 450 prisoners will be released that Hamas demanded – though not all, as Israel said they would not release prisoners with high Palestinian symbolic value.

The new Egyptian government wanted to conclude the deal that was done during the Mubarak era and demonstrate to the international community that, in the face of all the perceived anarchy, they are functional and in control and have influence in the Middle East.

It is being reported that the second round of 550 prisoners released from Israeli jails – Egypt has a say in who is to be released.

So a series of meetings took place between Israel and Hamas with Egypt's mediation.

These all culminated in a marathon 24 hour meeting were there was at the end, an agreement the parties signed off on.

Clearly we reached a point in time where the release of Schalit was in both parties interests and thus the situation on the ground was ripe as well.

Israel's Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu needs public and international legitimacy due to his handling of the domestic issues in Israel and his continued avoidance of peace negotiations and the policey of expansion and annexation of Israeli settlements in the West Bank.

For it's part, Hamas had manage to hold on to Schalit for more than five years, and now with Palestinian President Mohmoud Abbas having been crowned with rock star status at the UN this month, Hamas wanted to show that they can deliver – in this case prisoners held in Israeli jails.

The Israeli's dropped their demand that many of the prisoners be deported to third world countries – thus Hamas secured what they wanted - homecomings. This scores them big points – even though there are a number who will in fact be deported to third countries.

Israel in the past has been reluctant to release 'terrorists' back into the West Bank, Gaza, and East Jerusalem for fear of future terrorist activity. Also, Israel had previously refused to release Israeli Arabs in their custody – but now reciprocated flexibility to Hamas by releasing six.

As of this hour, Schalit should be on Israeli soil, after having been in interim Egyptian custody for the release of the first 450 Palestinians, and the 27 female prisoners, on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Be sure to join me Monday as I bring you all the latest from Jerusalem with my live news update on the Harvest Show.

Brian Bush Middle East Correspondent LeSEA Broadcasting

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